A sleeper prop-bet: Player to score at least 2 touchdowns: Leonard Fournette +550. When the Bucs get inside the 10-yeard line, this bruising running-back (RB) is getting the football. #3 Player position MVP winner: Running Back +800. Since 1998, the Most Valuable Player award has been a QB award. Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On DraftKings (Week 10). We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10.
This article is part of our DraftKings Sportsbook series.
I couldn't have really asked for a better day Saturday as Clint Capela annihilated his double-double prop bet and all four of the best bets hit. If not for Keldon Johnson dropping the ball we would have had a perfect day altogether, so we'll hope for another solid day this go around. 10 games on Wednesday's slate opens up a bunch of different prop-bet possibilities and I think there are enough 'locks' that you could make a realistic parlay or two, particularly if you factor in some gimme spreads.
Evidently, DraftKings felt particularly ambitious with a number of their point prop bets because I think there's a handful of 'unders' that make sense. I hate to target a guy that has done so well for us as of late, but taking the under on Malcolm Brogdon's 22.5 points (-115) sure feels like easy money when you consider the Mavs allow the third-fewest points to PGs in the NBA. The 28-year-old has also been under that figure in three of the last five games and both of those 'overs' were against teams who are miserable defensively.
I also like the under on Josh Okogie's 7.5 points (+104), mainly because the odds are so nice. Either due to his hamstring injury or just overall ineffectiveness, Okogie has averaged just 23 minutes and 4.3 points over his last three starts and the Magic also tend to play well against SFs, allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position. Don't toss it into a parlay, but if you're looking at plus-money props, that one feels like the easiest target.
If you do want to find a parlay filler, look no further than under 8.5 points for Tristan Thompson's (-134) point total. Especially with Joel Embiid playing at his All-NBA level this year, I just don't see a way in which Thompson gets close to that total, particularly when he's playing around 21 minutes on average over the last four games.
Perhaps my favorite bet of the day is actually an over pertaining to D'Angelo Russell's 23.5 points (-125). Generally speaking, I tend to stay away from large points figures from stars just because there's more volatility game-to-game, but in this case, I really don't see a way in which the 218.5 O/U comes into play unless Russell goes off. Thankfully, the Magic allow the third-most points to PGs across the league and no Karl Anthony-Towns (COVID-19) just puts more of the offensive onus on the 2015 No. 2 overall pick.
To be honest, there weren't any 'noticeable' rebounds/assists prop bets that jumped out, so I wanted to hammer home a few points/assists/rebounds (PRA for short) props that make sense instead.
I don't know when DraftKings will get it right with Jerami Grant's totals, but it certainly isn't Wednesday. We've been able to target the overs plenty of times and while I think the sportsbook has finally gotten close to an appropriate point total (o/u 22.5), there's plenty of room for the 30.5 PRA over to hit (-125). Grant has hit that over in five of the last six games and to help matters more, the Hawks are top-10 in terms of rebounds allowed to small forwards.
There's a bit of a sweet spot we've developed over the last couple of weeks targeting the over on small forwards who play a lot of minutes and find themselves in favorable situations. OG Anunoby, Jerami Grant, De'Andre Hunter, and now....Mikal Bridges. There's nothing wrong with taking Bridges 13.5 point over for plus money (+104), but I think the rebounds makes his PRA over (19.5, -114) a pretty easy mark to hit.
If I felt a bit better about Patrick Beverley's minutes I'd make the 16.5 PRA over (-110) one of the easiest locks of the night, but as it stands I still think it's worth mentioning. The Kings are dreadful against opposing PGs allowing the most points and second-most assists throughout the season and even if Beverly were to play close to his season average in minutes (26.4), I think this bet has the chance of hitting. No Lou Williams (hip) would likely bump that total even higher basically all but assuring the over.
We’re down to the final eight teams in the NFL Playoffs and the Divisional Round will offer plenty of stellar matchups. A week after shocking Pittsburgh, the Cleveland Browns head to the defending champion Chiefs’ house with plenty of momentum and motivation. The red-hot Ravens’ offense meets the Buffalo Bills, while the Rams visit the Packers. Tampa Bay and New Orleans get a third and final crack at one another to round out the Divisional Round.
With these outstanding team matchups come some of the best individual matchups that we’ve had all season long. Dozens of All-Pro selections litter the remaining teams, and many of them get to square off against one another. Let’s take a look at some of the most pivotal matchups that will have a heavy impact on not only this weekend’s prop bets, but also the outcomes of the games themselves.
Looking to bet on team and player props for NFL Wild Card weekend? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.
The player props search tool was built to make everyone’s life easier, and we didn’t try to hide its purpose in the name. The Lines now provides one-stop shop that gathers odds from a dozen sportsbooks and puts them in one place. Besides cutting minutes off your search by putting DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and others right in front of you; the search tool also shows you dozens of prop bets for the individual player.
Advice oft-repeated at The Lines is to shop around when placing bets. Just because Fox Bet offers certain odds doesn’t mean another sportsbook won’t offer better odds. For example, BetMGM offers the over/under on Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards Sunday against the Browns at 320.5. However, DraftKings Sportsbook may offer the same prop at over/under 322.5. That two yard discrepancy might not seem like much, but it’s solid insurance against a bad beat and maximizes your win probability.
Similarly, two sportsbooks may offer the same prop, but at different odds. For example, Mahomes’ season-long odds to win the MVP land at +1400 at FanDuel Sportsbook. However, DraftKings Sportsbook lists his MVP odds at +1600. A $100 bet at DK would pay out $1400 (plus the initial $100 bet), but the same $100 wager placed at FanDuel would pay out $1600– a $200 difference (plus the initial $100 bet).
The player props search tool is made to maximize winnings and minimize time flipping through windows and tabs.
The search tool (above) is incredibly easy to use; simply type in a player’s name (ex. Drew Brees) and your state of residence. Hit enter and that’s it.
From there, you’ll find a list of different props at different odds and at different sportsbooks. There’s even links to the books, so you won’t have to open a new window and re-find those odds. No need to worry about outdated odds, either– the tool is linked to live odds and is ever-changing.
Myles Garrett vs Patrick Mahomes
Buckle up, this one gets a little involved:
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line hasn’t been great this season, especially on third down. While there’s a lengthy explanation behind why that is – in short – it’s because Patrick Mahomes drops deeper than any other quarterback in the league to extend the time it takes for defenders to put pressure on him. However, it’s caused Mahomes to end up dropping so far back that he’s outside the pocket created from his offensive line, leading to his sack rate increasing by 2% this season (moving him up 11 spots among quarterbacks from 31st-most sacked to 20th-most sacked).
Enter Myles Garrett – first team All-Pro edge rusher. Garrett excels when the Browns allow him to just bullrush the quarterback and use his freakish combination of size, speed, and strength to dominate the opposing tackle. The Chiefs rely on home run plays on early downs and bunch scoring to win. In games against Denver and Atlanta this season, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense struggled to score because of the soft coverage both defenses showed him.
Again, long explanation made simple – the Browns play plenty of soft coverage (see last week’s game against Pittsburgh), which could give Garrett plenty of time to get home. If he can and the Chiefs’ stall out a few times, their defense won’t be holding the Browns to few enough points to win. It’s a matchup that could put the Browns in position to pull off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.
Aaron Donald vs Corey Linsley
It’s another matchup between first team All-Pro players. Aaron Donald is one of the league’s biggest disruptors and game-changers while Corey Linsely is one of the best neutralizers in the NFL. A week ago, Donald proved just how much of a disruptor he can be, sacking Russell Wilson twice and knocking him down three additional times in just over a half played (he exited the matchup with an abdominal injury). One of those sacks was a drive-ender early in the first quarter.
Of the remaining teams, no one has given up fewer sacks than Green Bay (just 1.3 per game). This comes in spite of Rodgers sitting in the pocket the 12th-longest among eligible quarterbacks and regularly extending plays with his legs. This is thanks to the Packers’ second-ranked pass blocking offensive line, anchored by Donald. If Linsley can keep Donald out of the game, Green Bay will be finding themselves walking into next week’s NFC Championship Game.
Jalen Ramsey vs Davante Adams
You don’t have to leave Green Bay to find another matchup between first team All-Pros: lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey takes on this year’s best wide receiver in Davante Adams. Five times this year has Adams found the end zone more than once in a single game. In 16 games this year, Ramsey has allowed just 32 total receptions on 64 targets (50% catch) and three touchdowns (two of which came in Week 3 against Buffalo).
This matchup comes down to an unstoppable force (Adams) against an immovable object (Ramsey). Adams has averaged 9.9 targets per game this season (most) and piled up the fourth-most total targets despite missing two games. Adams also averages 9.2 yards per target (third) while Ramsey has allowed just 4.8 yards per target this season.